Economic Forecast

While waiting at my bank the other day (they were counting a jar of coins) I picked up a 4-page paper setting next to my chair. The bank is West Coast Bank and the “Economic Forecast” was by William B. Conerly, Ph.D. of Conerly Consulting LLC. The date of the paper was January/February 2010.

I have only a limited understanding of economics, although I did take a year of it while in college ever so long ago. One thing that caught my eye was the comparison of the value of the U.S. dollar side by side with the Oregon and Washington employment forecasts. As the employment numbers rose in the period 2006 into 2008, the value of the U.S. dollar dropped. When employment dropped in 2008 through 2009, the value rose; but then dropped again in the second half of 2009.

The forecast is that both Oregon and Washington employments have bottomed out as of the beginning of 2010 and will rise throughout this year (2010).

The second item that caught my eye was that the 10th largest Pacific Northwest Trading Partner is United Arab Emirates (UAE). It only took me a minute to grasp that this must be because they must have purchased a bunch of Boeing aircraft. A quick look through Google and I came upon this statement on a Boeing website: Emirates, one of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) main airlines, is the largest operator of Boeing’s 777. UAE has also ordered Boeing 6 C-17 cargo aircraft.

Let’s keep that oil money flowing back into our United States industries.

Mr. Conerly has quite a bit of information available on his site which you can get to HERE.

 

Kingston Fossil Plant, Tennessee, TVA

The Kingston Fossil Plant, part of the Tennessee Valley Authority, is proud of its record in reducing certain emissions at this coal fired plant as expressed in their website. Yet, and a big yet, they have not reduced the emissions of CO2, that greenhouse gas that is the main culprit in global warming. Overall, in 2008, the plant produced 9,409,452 pounds of toxics as stated in their “Toxic Release Inventory.” This figure does not include the approximately 22,000,000 pounds of Carbon dioxide released. It also appears that the 20,000 pounds of Nitrogen oxides and 100,000 pounds of Sulfur dioxide are not included in the toxic release inventory.

There is an infrastructure in this country that supports the use of massive amounts of coal as the fuel source for much of our electrical generation. This is not going to change anytime soon. Yet for every bit of coal that is burned, we put toxics and other chemicals into our air, ground, and water. Yes, the coal industry is doing much to mitigate this problem; but the fact remains that these toxics and chemicals, even if properly sequestered, are still admitted into our environment.

The long-term solution is to leave the coal in the ground and find other non-hazardous methods of energy production. Solar and wind are the best long-term solutions we have right now. Nuclear fission is not the long-term solution. However, if nuclear fusion comes into play, it may become a viable option.

Once a solar generating site has been set up, train-loads of coal need not be shipped to it. Here is a link to a Google map image of 2 such locations a few miles east of Barstow, California.

Certainly there are maintenance costs associated with all generating costs; but solar and wind plants emit no toxic chemicals or CO2.

Think “Photovoltaic.” That’s direct conversion of solar energy to electrical energy. Pioneering relativity theorist Albert Einstein won the Nobel Prize in 1921 – but not for his famous theories of relativity and the iconic equation E=mc2. The prize was for his 1905 discovery of exactly how light caused what was then called the photoelectric effect (photovoltaics). This is the wave of the future, and the sooner we jump on that bandwagon, the sooner we get away from relying on coal.

I’m sorry Wyoming, West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and all the other states that dig coal. Start building plants to manufacture solar panels and wind generators. That’s the future.

 

Oregon Measures 66 and 67, Voters Pamphlet

My oh My! I got the Oregon Voters’ Pamphlet in the mail today. There are around 75 pages of arguments for and against the measures. I was driving in rural Yamhill County yesterday and saw several signs in opposition to the measures. Elsewhere I have seen signs and statements for and against.

I will have to make up my mind on these; and hopefully it will be an informed decision.

If we are to have any level of government we need taxes to support it. Where are the moneys to come from and how much do we need? This is an eternal question. I hope that all voters will take a dispassionate approach to this important matter. Sewers, roads, schools, police, social services, building inspections, prisons, and so on, and so on; all supported by taxes. Once again: how much and from where does it come.

Become informed and vote.

 

Washington County Oregon DA’s Office, Not So Wacko

At the time I wrote my previous blog posting on this subject, I also wrote a letter to Mr. Bob Hermann who is the Washington County Oregon District Attorney. Please refer to my Previous Blog Entry for the links to the Willamette Week and OregonBlue articles.

Let me quote three items from Mr. Hermann’s response to my letter to him:

“Unfortunately the information reported by Ms. Axtman and the Willamette Week is inaccurate in some critical areas.” “Additionally the charges the grand jury issued were not reported fully or at all.” And: Ms. Aguilar-Gutierrez was arrested for reckless driving and causing injury to a child, subsequently charged by the grand jury for those same reasons. That part of the ‘facts’ were not reported.”

I should have held my tongue until I had my response from Mr. Hermann. I should have realized that the grand jury would not have agreed on the charges without a strong case from the DA’s office.

Because this incident involves a minor and because the case is open pending trial, Mr. Hermann could not comment fully on all the circumstances. But after reading his letter, I can see that the DA’s office is proceeding properly and within the law.

In my working years (I am now retired) I worked in the insurance industry for 15 years with about 5 of those years actively handling or reviewing accident claims. In all those years I can recall no criminal charges arising out of an automobile accident claim processed by me or that I handled unless there were extenuating circumstances such as drunk driving. The public’s attitude on these matters seems to be changing. Beyond simple negligence, if you are overly reckless in your driving habits and cause injury to another person, particularly a minor, you may be charged with a criminal offence.

I have learned a lesson here. Make sure I have all the facts before I lash out.

 

Traffic Fatalities, Statistics

The 2009 traffic fatalities statistics will not be out until the middle of 2010. These are issued by FARS, Fatality Analysis Reporting System, of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. So please allow me to review some of the statistics from 2008.

The total traffic fatalities in the United States during 2008 were 37,261 which was a reduction of 3,998 over the previous year. This represents the lowest traffic deaths in the past 15 years. Each year over that same 15 year period the fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled has dropped from 1.73 to 1.27.

The only category that showed a significant rise in fatalities was motorcyclists.

The top link at the Blogroll on right in this blog gets you to these statistics.

I speculate that there are 2 major reasons for the overall reductions. The first is that cars are safer. More people are driving newer and safer cars and more occupants are using their seatbelts. The second reason is that the drunk-driving laws are being more heavily enforced.

Be safe out there. If you have not taken a defensive driving course in some time (5-10 years) find one and take it. Senior Citizen centers offer them, often for free or a very low price. You can always learn something at one of these courses. About 2 years ago I took the one offered at my local Senior Citizen center. It was a great refresher for me. I did make a couple changes in my habits because of what I learned in the course.

Did I say: Be safe out there? If you think the other driver will do something stupid to put you in jeopardy, he or she probably will. Not every time, but often enough to be a potential crash.

 

Washington County Oregon DA’s Office Going Wacko

Yesenia Aguilar Gutierrez has been charged with felony to commit domestic violence in front of a minor as the result of an automobile accident arising out of the negligence of the driver, Gutierrez. Here is the LINK to the original story in the Willamette Week – Online from November 11, 2009. And here is a LINK to a follow-up article on OregonBlue.com with information about the origin of the law under which Gutierrez was charged.

If you read both the articles (no, I’m not going to quote them both here) I think that you will agree that the Washington County Assistant DA Jason Weiner has gone wacko. I can see thousands of criminal cases now being brought because a minor has witnessed an automobile accident.

This case will ultimately be thrown out by any appeals court that sees it. In the meantime, Gutierrez has to live with a possible felony conviction looming in the air. Shame on the Washington County DA’s office for even considering bringing this case against any person. It is a waste of tax money, it is a crime against Gutierrez, and it is just plain bad practice by the DA’s office.

 

In Memory of Dorothy Ierne Wilde: Oscaria

For up to the next two weeks I have in my custody a privately published book. I would like to own the book; but it is a little out of my book budget at around $350. The book is titled: In Memory of Dorothy Ierne Wilde: Oscaria. Dolly Wilde was the niece of the late 19th century author, Oscar Wilde. Although she never met her famous uncle, she exhibited many of the traits of Oscar.

The “In Memory” is referenced extensively in the biography of Dolly, “Truly Wild,” by Joan Schenkar. One critic, Edmund White, characterized the biography as follows: “Schenkar has lifted the veil to reveal a sophisticated, overheated lesbian world in Paris in the first decades of the twentieth century. This is a great story, beautifully told.”

After Dolly died at a relatively young age in 1941 (age about 46) and after the end of World War II, her lover and friend Natalie Barney solicited writings from Dolly’s friends and had the memorial book privately printed. There are about 14 contributions, both in English and French, many by some of the more famous literary and artistic persons of Dolly’s day.

Except for her letters, Dolly wrote very little. Had she taken pen in hand as her famous uncle did, she would have been a well known person today. Here is a brief sample of her writing taken from a letter to her friend “Emily.”

“Dear Emily, Your letter arrived with my breakfast tray and a beam of sunlight cut the pages like a golden paper knife. I lit a voluptuous cigarette and in the fresh morning solitude—before the incidents of the day have broken me into segments—I read your lovely words.”

I am looking forward to leisurely reading through the book over the next few days before I have to return it to the library. I acquired the book via an inter-library loan.

 

How to Grade for Learning, K-12, O’Connor

A friend who writes an education blog (he is a retired teacher and a member of our local school board) suggested a book: How to Grade for Learning, K-12, by Ken O’Connor Published by Corwin Press, and now in its third edition, copyright 2009. The author describes a grading policy for Standards-Based Education.

I was struck by two things in the book. The first is that the creation and issuance of grades by teachers in the K-12 range is a very complex procedure. This is especially true because of a lack of any kind of regional let alone national consistency in grading practices. The second concept that struck me was that Mr. O’Connor has a very clear, though complex, formula for a system of creating grades at all levels of school.

I am not a professional educator, nor do I have any Education college classes under my belt, but I see here a fine system that should be considered by all school districts and state boards of education in our country.

A prudent shopper can find a new copy of the book (I looked on amazon.com) starting at around $30.00. I was even more prudent and acquired the loan of the book through an Inter-Library Loan at my local library.

Any person interested in education and grades, or has children in school, or is a professional teacher, you can benefit from the ideas in this book. If nothing else it will get you thinking about the grading procedures. You may even become an advocate for Mr. O’Connor’s theories.

 

Can There Be a Military Victory in Afghanistan?

Afghanistan has a population of about 28,000,000 which is slightly more than the State of Texas. Afghanistan and Texas are about the same area.

One of Afghanistan’s most telling statistics is not its area or population but its Infant Mortality Rate. It is the 3^rd worst in the world; 151 deaths per 1000 live births. Let me pile on the negative facts. The fertility rate is 6.53 births per woman, the 4^th highest in the world. China is at 1.79; India at 2.72; and the USA rate is at 2.05.

Literacy rate in Afghanistan is only 28% with male 43% and female 12%. The economy is 116^th out of 228 countries in the world. GDP, Purchasing Power Parity per capita is $800 per year. The same figure in the Unites States is $47,000. The Afghan commercial bank prime lending rate is 14.92%. Electricity production and consumption are 150^th and 145^th of 228, respectively, in the world. In exports, Afghanistan is 173^rd in the world.

This places Afghanistan in with the worst countries of Africa (the worst in economic and related matters).

Certainly we need to offer all the assistance we can to these people. We are partly to blame for their current situation. We must control Al Qaeda and keep the Taliban from regaining political control of the country. This won’t happen with troops alone.

The phrase “nation building” has been tossed around a lot; that is what is needed here.  It will do no good to keep fighting Al Qaeda and the Taliban with troops. They will out last us and all the allies we can muster. We must solve these real problems of poverty, the abysmal economy, and infant mortality and fertility rates.

Maybe it is not possible to have success with any military commander at the head of this operation. These is no military victory to he had here.

The statistics are from the CIA World Factbook.

 

Oscar Wilde, 109 Years Ago

On November 30, 1900, Oscar Wilde died. By all accounts, he was one of the most important writers on the late 19^th century. He spent two years in a British prison because of his homosexual life style. When he was released from prison he immediately moved to France never to return to England or Ireland, his native home. He died three years later.

While in prison he wrote a long narrative, De Profundis. Later, while in France, he wrote one longer poem, Ballad of Reading Goal. These two works ended his creative output.

There is so very much that can be written here about the man and his work. But where do I start?  I started reading his works chronologically, with the last first and then backward in time. I have so far gotten through the two works mentioned above. I was both saddened and exhilarated by what I read; saddened because of the tragedy that was the end of his life; exhilarated because of the excellence of the writings.

On my desk are two library book by/about Oscar Wilde; the first is his biography by Richard Ellmann, and the second a book of Fairy Tales by Wilde. In my brief case is a copy of his play, The Importance of Being Earnest.

So how did I all of a sudden find an interest in the life and works of Oscar Wilde?  I was talking to an internet friend about this and that. She mentioned that her 50^th high school reunion was coming up soon. She told me that one of the more famous fellow graduates was Joan Schenkar, a writer, mostly of plays. I acquired a copy of one of her collections and was delighted by the first one I read. I looked around at what else she had written and discovered a biography of Dolly Wilde (Truly Wilde), a niece of Oscar Wilde. It is a great story, very well written, about Dolly’s life in the first 40-some years of the 20^th century.

While Oscar’s life crowned the last half of the 19^th century, Dolly’s was in the literary and arts life of England and France (London and Paris). She, like her famous uncle, was homosexual with her most famous lover being Natalie Barney who entertained in her salon the literary elite who came to and lived in Paris. Dolly had a talent for writing that was confined to letters and notes. They are yet to be collected into one publication.

How can one read about Dolly Wilde without jumping into the works of her uncle whom Dolly resembled in many ways, although she never, I believe, met him? Dolly was born about the time her uncle entered prison.

I look forward to learning more about Oscar and reading his many and varied works. As for Dolly, I am waiting for a copy of “In Memory of Dorothy Ierne Wilde:  Oscarina” to come on an inter-library loan. This publishing of this memorial book arranged for by Natalie Barney. While it was privately printed, it did go out for public sale in two editions of probably less that a total of 500 copies. Barney solicited input from Dolly’s friends that were collected and published in the book. Nearly all of the copies are in private collections or in public libraries. Purchasing one of the few copies for sale takes about $350. Thanks heavens for inter-library loans.